Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 09 2004 12:16 AM
Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2

Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT sun 08 Aug 2004

(from two segments of the overall discussion)
Central American tropical wave along 87w S of 18w moving W 10-15 kt. The remnant of TD two has split off the wave as a trof and is located from 20n85w to 24n84w. A weak low may be forming near 21n85w moving WNW 10-15 kt. Radar images from Cancun confirm the satellite presentation with rotation noted in the Yucatan Channel. System appears to be in a low shear environment as it enters the se Gulf overnight. Tropical wave is bringing a few tstms to Central America within 90 nm of the wave axis. Scattered moderate near the trof from 20n-23n between 84w-87w.

Upper high over the se Gulf is leading to anticyclonic flow
aloft in the NW Caribbean... which is favorable for tropical
cyclone formation. The remnant of TD 2 has flared up this
evening and will be watched as it moves into the se Gulf Mon. Numerical models don't indicate much development but small systems such as this one have been known to slip through the cracks due to its size.



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