a'ite, back to the vigil. 91L/former td 2 has fairly well busted most of my earlier ideas.. saw the weak/west option with the globals and chose development over it back when the system was entering the caribbean. i've been burned by this one already and am hesitant to want to keep making development forecasts, but in response to it's newfound vigor i can't help but keep calling for it to be bonnie. low level jet is stronger to the south, conditions closer to optimal to the north.. which is conveniently where it seems to be headed (NW at least for now).
think that the northern section will be the part that closes off, and that it wont be getting much further to the west. not ready to develop a timetable, too much uncertainty without a definitive closed low.
93L away east has finally received token notice from ssd, with a too weak. there's an impressive amount of convection and evidence of outflow to the whole thunderstorm complex, but with it's high forward motion and unclear circulation, as well as it's trajectory (going to be very close to trinidad/SA tomorrow), going to play the current organization trend cautiously. speed is the main issue here.. environment is fine except for the deep layer flow ramrodding the whole thing westward. should slowly decelerate over the next couple of days.. so if it's still looking nice by tuesday morning it's development chances rise markably.
interested tonight.. there's a decent chance something will be active when i get off work tomorrow.
HF 0350z09august