Not sure what to do with 91L. I'm giving my ideas a B+ so far. My early end game from last Monday or Tuesday called for a potential eastern Gulf threat. It's really hard to tell what might happen. The biggest player is the front expected to get to the Northern Gulf on Wed. or Thurs. How fast will it get here? How far south into the Gulf will it move? How are the models going to change if we end up with a Gulf system? If you missed it last night, I threw up an interesting scenario proposed for this season on the 91L contest thread. I wonder how I did on the 2nd half of the prediction scheme? Models I've looked at seem to indicate a hard right in the middle of the Gulf and toward the FL panhandle. That's plausible as is a west moving wave axis . There's just no way to determine yet what's going to happen. If you missed it, a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued for 91L. As of the Hi-res IR tonight, it looks like the system is developing most on its southerly side. (Something we saw 8-10 days ago in the WPAC). Speaking of the WPAC, there are two invests up as well as Tropical Storm Rananim. This storm is anticipated to become a typhoon on its slow move north and then curve West toward Shanghai. NRL & JTWC will be changing the tracks from time to time. But as of now, we're talking about a 6-10 day teleconnection of a ridge in eastern North America (and probably a strong one). What effect this has on 93L (which for my money, is looking better by the minute) into early-mid next week, if any, remains to be seen..

SOI has been averaging slightly negative for the last 6 days. A -6.4 value doesn't really scream, "El Nino is coming" but more likely signifies the 3 systems north of there.
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Anyway, 91L could be a developing situation, or it may turn out to be nothing (what the models have been saying).

Steve /finishing off that Wild Turkey 101