Morning all, I really am not here to distract from this forum,I find all of you very informative and have learned a great deal from visiting here. I am actually a member here as of last year(canman32) was my name,but I have lost my password to that name and have yet to reregister. I will soon.

Anyway,I live on the gulf coast (Crestview Florida) and have been thru many years of this stuff. I am too old to follow some of these models and maps you all bring up,although I do find them interesting and enjoy when you all talk about them and especially provide links to them.

I suppose what I am trying to say is sometimes a gut feeling is all you have,but even that gut feeling comes from experience from being thru this before. I by no means am saying I am always right,far from it actually. Its just that sometimes there are different ways to get to the same results.

My prediction is a long way from coming true,but I think it is coming closer and closer. It appears the time frame may be off,but I still feel TD 2 will be at the least a strong TD or a Cat 1 before it hits anywhere.

My earlier prediction ...............................

"If it survives thru Friday,I believe a strong tropical system,or maybe even a cat 1 Hurricane will be in the GOM this weekend.

Alabama/MIss could be in for a very wet beginning of next week.

Of course I have no explanation for this,just a gut feeling."

Thanks again for all the interesting reading and links,even an old fool like me can learn fsome of this new stuff.

I mostly read on here so please dont take my postings the wrong way,I only participate when I feel something may be coming close to my area,and wont be bothering you with anything other than my thoughts on potential storms.

Other tha nthis post that is

Hope you all have a good day and will be back this evening to see what we have in the gulf.

Thanks