danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 09 2004 01:04 PM
Re: Bonnie? who knows?

Nice post canman32.
Seems NHC and everyone has aimed the birds to watch the Yucatan storm.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N86W ALONG
THE SURFACE TROF THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N87W THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO 25N85W. THIS SYSTEM IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. TWO AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. RADAR
IMAGES FROM CANCUN MEXICO SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS 6 HOURS AGO. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN
A 60 NM RADIUS OF 22N87W.

WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 225 NM E OF BARBADOS
ALONG 56W/57W S OF 18N MOVING W 20-25 KT...WITH A 1013 MB LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD AND S LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THIS WAVE/LOW IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WHICH IS PRODUCING OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-16N
BETWEEN 54W-63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-18N FROM E OF 66W TO
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON AUG 9 2004
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...GULF OF MEXICO LOW
MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
9/1215 UTC 21.7N 87.3W 300/10 6.0 IN 4.3 IN
LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...
DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER
------------- --------------- ---------------
0 TO 1 DEGREE 0.5 TO 4.1 IN 0.6 TO 4.3 IN
1 TO 2 DEGREE 0.1 TO 0.9 IN 0.0 TO 1.1 IN
2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.8 IN 0.0 TO 0.7 IN
3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.1 IN 0.0 TO 0.0 IN



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