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Nice post canman32. Seems NHC and everyone has aimed the birds to watch the Yucatan storm. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N86W ALONG THE SURFACE TROF THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N87W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 25N85W. THIS SYSTEM IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. TWO AND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. RADAR IMAGES FROM CANCUN MEXICO SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 6 HOURS AGO. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 22N87W. WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 225 NM E OF BARBADOS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 18N MOVING W 20-25 KT...WITH A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD AND S LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE/LOW IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH IS PRODUCING OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 54W-63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-18N FROM E OF 66W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1215 UTC MON AUG 9 2004 SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...GULF OF MEXICO LOW MAX RAINFALL DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST ----------- ------------ ------ ------- ------- 9/1215 UTC 21.7N 87.3W 300/10 6.0 IN 4.3 IN LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER ------------- --------------- --------------- 0 TO 1 DEGREE 0.5 TO 4.1 IN 0.6 TO 4.3 IN 1 TO 2 DEGREE 0.1 TO 0.9 IN 0.0 TO 1.1 IN 2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.8 IN 0.0 TO 0.7 IN 3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.1 IN 0.0 TO 0.0 IN |