Interesting 10 days afoot. Watched JB's Tropical Update which confirmed some of my worries from last night's drunken post. He likes the N.O.-Appy solution (obviously assuming we have a LLC) as a TS or hurricane by Thursday. GFDL's 6z takes it in as a hurricane in NW FL after just bypassing the mouth of the Mississippi. Then the fun begins after that. Watch what happens in the WPAC with Rananim. Latest JTWC track brings it a bit south of Shanghai and gets it fairly close to Cat 3. Might we have a potentially brutal storm sitting around the Gulf for a few days and possibly moving toward the Texas coast in the end (JB calls the potential teleconnection a chance of a chance of a chance)? But anyway, the Western basin is certainly coming to life.

Steve