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Bobbi, you get your answer from the Discussion: ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS EARLIER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ISLANDS OF TRINIDAD AND MARGARITA SHOW WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THERE IS NOW A DEFINITE CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE...THE SYSTEM NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS BEING NUMBERED AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY WELL-ORGANZIED SYSTEM WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. Steve |