TD 3 as everyone knows has formed today and is the major feature of the moment. TD3 actually has a llc for the last 2 days but was part of the itcz and didnt have the TS around or near the center. Finally today after the system got better organized and land obs this was upgraded. Pressure is still high but will slowly fall as it has very good enviroment around it. The pressures are generally high for this time of year in the eastern carribean sea. I expect the system to become better organized slowly and become a T.S in next day or so. When the system gets w of 70W i expect it to begin a more generaly strengthning faze as it will slow down some and surrounding pressures will be slightly lower then the 1014-15 in the islands (outside of TD3). I expect this to become a hurricane after it passes Jamaica on Thursday. Probably the evening. Another trough will be pushing into the eastern U.S. after 96hours from now. How far down it digs and the placement of where the current TD3 will be will determine the weekend movement of the hurricane. Best scenerio right now is it to move into the se Gulf and up florida or across. Some think it might stay alittle more s and move into the Yucitan chaneel drift and move w towards Texas or Mexico when the trough moves out later Monday into Tuesday. Looks like Friday and Saturday we will have a idea. System should gradually get stronger till the weekend.
System in the Southern gulf is a tight compact system. Had great radar from Mexico last night into today. The system could be classified when recon checks this out today and might find TS winds. Pressures are high though and this should get absorbed into the eastern U.S trough and move NE across Fl Panhandle or Big Bend area. I dont expect this to be a strong Tropical Storm if it even gets classified at all.

scottsvb