000
WTNT72 KNHC 092031
SPFAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

25.3N 90.3W 42 1 X X 43 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 11 13
26.5N 90.2W 19 8 1 X 28 PENSACOLA FL X X 4 11 15
27.4N 89.5W 4 16 3 1 24 MOBILE AL X X 6 10 16
MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X 1 9 7 17
W PALM BEACH FL X X X 2 2 BURAS LA X 5 10 4 19
FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 NEW ORLEANS LA X 3 10 5 18
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 NEW IBERIA LA X 4 9 4 17
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 4 4 PORT ARTHUR TX X 2 6 4 12
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 5 5 GALVESTON TX X 2 4 4 10
SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 FREEPORT TX X 1 3 3 7
CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 2 2 4
KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 10 12
MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X 1 7 8 16
FT MYERS FL X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 89W 1 13 5 2 21
VENICE FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 91W 1 18 3 1 23
TAMPA FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 93W X 13 3 2 18
CEDAR KEY FL X X X 8 8 GULF 28N 95W X 3 3 3 9
ST MARKS FL X X X 10 10 GULF 27N 96W X 1 1 2 4
APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 11 12 GULF 25N 96W X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM TUE TO 1AM WED
C FROM 1AM WED TO 1PM WED
D FROM 1PM WED TO 1PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART