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Melbourne NWS showing some concern over TD #3: FRI-MON...GLOBAL MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...SHOWING ANOTHER UNUSALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE BUCKLING OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN CONUS...WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH TWD THE GULF COAST AND SERN STATES...AND VERY MOIST S-SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS FL THRU FRI...THEN PERHAPS BACKING MORE TO SE BY THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. DIFF BTWN THIS TROUGH AND THE LAST IN THAT THE DIGGING WILL OCCUR AROUND 85W AS OPPOSED TO ~75W BY ITS PREDECESSOR ...RESULTING IN STRONG ATLC RIDGE EAST OF THE ERN CONUS AND POSSIBLY LITTLE WWD EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROP PORTION OF THE RIDGE W OF FL. T.D. #3...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO FEEL SOME WEAKNESS TO IT'S NORTH ONCE IT CROSSES 80W OR SO AND START TO GAIN LATITUDE. TO WHAT EXTENT AND AT WHICH LONGITDUE THIS OCCURS REMAIN TO BE SEEN - BUT BEING THIS IS A RATHER LARGE SYSTEM ...WE'LL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE TABS ON ITS PROGRESS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE ...REFER TO THE NHC/TAFB PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL DISCUSSIONS. HAVE BASICALLY KEPT 40 POPS WHICH GIVES US WIGGLE ROOM...ALONG WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PARTICULAR XTD FCST. |