Well bonnie came along with recon and TS force winds as predicted, if they didnt find that tight center, I would be uncertain if it would develop. Infact we saw TS winds and saw the circulation, but the problem of thinking, if it develops at all is kinda what the NHC is thinking This could very quickly lose its convection on the s side of the tight center. If so there might be other weak centers pop up in other blow up thunderstorms. Also in these tight scenerios, very tight systems can really gain strength fast. Could in wrap up to 70mph or more? Well yeah it can, but highly up in the air.
Overall as mentioned, people from NO thru Tampa need to watch this system, a turn more north on Tuesday and ne on weds.