i've gone from gung ho, to doubtful, to cautious.. ready to return to gung ho... all in a week. go check out the t.d. challenge forum later, as i'm going to post the results this evening.. and from the posts i've spent the last half hour reading through.. steve has added a new leg to it.
if i was in the florida panhandle over to the miss delta i'd be paying attention. it's only natural that the summer after i finish undergrad stuff and move away from tallahassee that something like this happens. clark, enjoy this one for me.
bonnie has a twofold nature. it is a house of cards, and it is already well structured.. at the same time. having such a well-defined core, while being so compact.. suggests that it could either rapidly intensify or go through coughing fits if the convection cuts off. there is a good deal of dry air in the region, but the system has a history of spawning decent convection.. so i'm going to err on the side of growth. folks mentioning opal should keep two things in mind. opal was large and resilient, and opal was a late season storm. this one will have a fairly sharp shortwave coming to get it later this week and may go through that sort of deepening.. if it can hold steady or intensify over the next few days. such rapid organization with mediocre presentation can signify either clay feet or a capacity to supercharge. if this thing reaches hurricane strength by tomorrow evening it is going to end up hurting somebody badly.
td 3.. likely charley. it's independent of the itcz and broad.. and rapidly moving. it won't take much shear to knock it for a loop, but not much shear is around to cause trouble. there's a very good outflow signature and healthy convection aplenty.. it should steadily strengthen as per forecast. won't get close enough to bonnie to interact.. before it goes into the northern gulf coast.. probably. the official looks good on this one.. i have nothing to add right now.
the evolving longwave pattern and how future charley interacts with the environment bonnie leaves will determine whether it recurves around peninsular florida or goes barreling across the gulf.. or even hangs in it as the ridge is forecast to solidify to the north after the late week shortwave pulls out. it may even stay further south if it strengthens slowly.. at this point the official really looks best.
may be a 94L invest east of florida on the base of the trough next day or two. globals providing some evidence of cyclogenesis on the old front.. the one near the miss delta is close to land and weak and not likely to do much with bonnie close by.. but a fish spinner of nontropical origin is a possibility.
the wave the just came off africa looks weak, but with a good area of itcz convergence near 40w loitering. there may be another disturbance developing out there as the two interact.. modeling suggests more activity in the mdr with subsequent waves as well. with a good bit of ridging near the east coast next week anything potentially coming out of this region would be a concern.
nuff for now. things are interesting and they're going to get even more interesting this week.
HF 2320z09august