It's interesting to note the GFDL solution, a complete form of which can be found here:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdl...;hour=Animation

That is potentially a disaster scenario for the Florida Big Bend region, particularly if the solution it has for Bonnie from its 18z run holds true (bringing the eastern quadrant of the storm this way). Of course, it's five days out, and things can and do change from run to run, but T.D. 3 is one to watch.

I say it is a potential disaster scenario because it doesn't seem to be recuribng the storm, just sending it up north. If that trend continued for another 12-24 hr beyond the forecast time and the storm remained a borderline cat 3 hurricane, the storm surge in Apalachee Bay - on the east side of the circulation, no less - would be immense. Taylor & Wakulla Counties in Florida would be flooded. I've heard before from the local officials that a cat 4 hurricane moving in this fashion would put much of Wakulla County almost all the way to Leon County - 10-15 miles - under water due to the flatness of the land and the surge possible from Apalachee Bay.

I don't mean to sound any alarm, but just note that it is one to watch. For the people along that coastline, let's hope that's not what happens. Beyond a direct strike on a major metropolitan area, a strike just west of New Orleans, and a strike along Long Island, that area and track is one of the most susceptible to major damage from a storm.