reading over the 11pm stuff, just a couple of thoughts. watched bonnie's puffing but locally intense convection, still think the house of cards idea applies, but since the system is slowing to a crawl and over the high heat content of the gulf.. once it starts intensifying i expect it to do so prodigiously. if you care to opine on where you think bonnie will end up, head over to the forum and drop a post on the t.d. 2 forecast.. and take a moment to note how remarkably bad and remarkably good some of the forecast ideas were from last week.
t.d. 3.. one change of note. the system appears to be consolidating. of course there is uncertainty... the system is racing along, and no recon or reporting stations can fix the center (assuming it isn't deciding to open up into a speed wave). but then, the banding convection from earlier has decayed, while a core of convection has formed near the old convection center.. appears to be a cdo. not sure on the recon schedule, too lazy to check.. but if this is the start of a trend then we'll see charley by dvorak rating and not direct recon.
elsewhere in the basin.. weak lows on the old front need a watchful eye north and east of bonnie. the east atlantic doesn't have anything terribly suspect, but the sluggish look of the trades near the itcz and retrograding upper lows peeling back under the ridge tell me that waves that happen by will find opportunities a couple days past dakar.
aside from that, quick note of reinforcement to ed's earlier comment.. stay on topic. the board is going to get morey active/crazy if significant strengthening takes place in the gulf and/or caribbean. none of the moderators here really like to have to run around taking down posts--the less we have to do, the more fun the board will be for everyone.
HF 0325z10august