The influence of the trof is approaching hard off Texas now, so the westward component of Bonnie should begin to diminish and cease soon. I am oersonally shocked at actually how far that trough has penetrated to the Gulf coast already.
At first i thought it would slip under and more west, but then I saw that wall rapidly approaching off Texas. It has to go east.
My guess now is that Bonnie will be right of the projected path as the influence of the trough is already appearing over the coastal areas of the central gulf coast with sharp SW upper flow. Don't be surpirsed if the actual land fall is more toward the Florida Big Bend, even down to Cedar Key.