Tropical Depression Three has been upgraded to this year's third named storm. Charley is still moving generally west northwest, and the environment ahead of it is good for development so it's expected to become a hurricane over the next few days. It's motion puts Jamaica a little close and as it tracks further westward there is some debate if it will move over the Yucatan or shoot the straights into the Gulf of Mexico. It's a bit too far off to be certain on that, but either way it will be worth watching later.

I say later, because of Tropical Storm Bonnie is the wildcard of the Gulf. Although current landfall has it going in around Panama City Florida. Which I'm sure is going to make Jason Kelley busy. The wildcard part of it is the storms intensity and speed.

I mentioned yesterday about the size of Bonnie, it's small, and thus very sensitive to changes. It could ramp up quickly, or die dow just as quickly. Its small size lends it to potentially be very dangerous to right around the center of landfall if it were on the strengthening phase when it makes landfall. Folks along the Gulf coast there from Lousiana to Florida (and especially the panhandle) most definitely need to check up on the storm often. Things could change lightning fast with this storm.

Other than that possibility, right now the official intensity and track forecast puts it in as barely a category one Hurricane. But with the caveat that it could change.

Regardless, I will repeat one more time, people on that part of the Gulf Coast (perhaps more of the gulf if the track trends westward) need to keep an extremely close watch on what this system does.

If it does make landfall around Panama City, its track after that is interesting, bringing it through the southeast up into Virginia and beyond, it could be a potential flood event for places along the way as well.

Event Related Links

More later...

Event Related Links
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.