A thought.

Bonnie is forecast to be accelerating NE in the 4 day time frame or so. Tropical cyclones interacting with midlatitude boundaries can often leave behind a boundary of their own - or at least keep the one that recurved it around for awhile. We saw this with the trailing bands from Alex & the front it got caught by, for instance.

With this boundary in place and another forecast to be diving southward, I'm not sure I can see the western GoM in too much peril from Charley unless it remains a relatively weak system - in which case it doesn't react to the steering flow and continues WNW-bound. Charley is expected to be in the NW Carib./SE GoM around the 4-5 day time frame and, assuming at least a moderate tropical storm by then, would tend to get caught up and recurve.

How much and when are still yet to be determined. But, as the NHC noted, there is good consistency out to 72hr amongst the models - which all performed well with Isabel on track last year - but they diverge at later times. The models that keep it weaker trend west, the models that develop it trend east. The NHC is going with the latter and I tend to agree. But again, it's so far out that things can (and probably will) change, so these are just my thoughts for now.

This whole pattern is more reminiscent of October than August, at least it seems.