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Had a friend on campus take a look at the FSU Superensemble forecasts. Not sure how recent they are, but I'm guessing it's based off of available 0z and 6z model data. For Bonnie, it calls for a landfall near Destin on Thursday. For Charley, it sends it into the central Gulf in 5 days. Think along the lines of the 5am forecast path of Charley from the NHC and you've got it. We'll see how it changes with the Gulfstream data for Bonnie later, the 6hr raobs going up along the Gulf coast & in Norman and Dallas/Ft. Worth here in the next few minutes, and better initializations of both Bonnie and Charley in the global models. |