first for the gentleman asking about the 180dg turn around question is what i posted on last page. The nogaps didnt initialize the low that well and saw it as a open wave. Now that it has it, it will take Charley with the mid level pattern.
Charley will not cause its own enviroment, that is a false opinion in my book but others do beleive its true. Remember floyd was soo huge and powerfull but then ran into a strong eastern U.S. trough and pulled it NNW and weakend it down some with the sw shear. Mitch was simular, ran into a upper ridge to its Nw and moved W then SW even Briefly SSW till the pattern over the southern U.S. changed causeing the Yucitan ridge to move to the the Fl straits and then moving then inland mitch (T.S.) NW into the BoC.Then mitch felt the trough that pushed the ridge to the straits and moved Mitch Ne to and thru Sw florida.
Anyways with Charley, nothing is set. Still models will shift some but are coming in better argreement in Florida (area) as I see it. AVN (which I go by alot) somereason doesnt want to give Charley recognition, probably cause of bad feedback problems. Wait for the 18z and 00z runs tonight to see what it does again. GFDL changes every other run, I dont go by that in general. But its not always overdone in intensity as is usually the ships model.
So will the trough take charley, ,I think so cause it will be strong but where the turn and how much and if it leaves him behind in the SE gulf remains to be seen, but since models show a continued brisk pace, Charley looks good on crossing Cuba to the Se Gulf. scottsvb