she's having problems with shear and maintaining her growth so far and to say a system like this couldn't fall apart in August because its over warm water is like saying just cause a cute girl goes to a school dance wearing all the right clothes..she won't stand there all night with no one to dance with. She might be in the right place but you know how you can't get a horse to drink water even if you lead it to the creek

never say never, especially with Bonnie..I find her to be not reliable of furfilling people's expectations and more of a talker than a doer

IF she stays small.. a big IF... it will be easier for her to be GRABBED by the trof and pulled east and it will be harder for her to fight the shear.. There isn't much to hold onto and she will get tired real soon of fighting unless the conditions change fast

also..

Lets say she hangs in there and struggles ne eventually and ends up in the Eastern part of the Gulf vs La to Tx... well that scenario you showed with the big moisture tail will only work if she becomes a bit wet storm like Alex ended up doing. If she stays a small tightly wound storm w/o much moisture she will merge with some trough (probably one thats been overamplified by the models) and create more of a twister danger than a rainmaker.. reference some previous tropical storm that created a swath of twisters across Central florida.

Some leave rain, some make twisters and some do both

What will Bonnie do ultimately.. hmmmmn, good question.

going to go obsess now some over Charley