| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 11 2004 12:08 AM |
|
As If.....
|
The new track for Charley didn't get my attention immediately...(I almost fell off my chair), when I read the 5pm Discussion, this did:
Quote:.
IF CHARLEY FOLLOWS THE INDICATED TRACK...THE
SPEED MAY VERY WELL BE TOO SLOW BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP IN 3-5 DAYS.
IF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT PACKAGE IS SIMILAR...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
MAY HAVE BE SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST
I'm still waiting for a few more runs but it isn't as if it was just ONE model, it was generally a consensus. I don't think Charley is sick at all, I think he was getting his act together. If he just grazes the eastern part of Cuba, it will have little effect on Charley.
I think we may be looking at a double whammy on Florida in the next few days. West Central Florida can't take much more water and Charley is a big 'un. We'd also get feeder bans from Bonnie, since we'd be on the right side quadrant of that storm.
Also...I think that latest Recon obsveration of higher winds was coming...you don't normally have a storm with 999mb with winds at 40mph. I think it was just that they hadn't sampled all the quadrants at the time the 5pm advisory was issued. Which is why we have Advisory 6A.
Be prepared, stay calm, and pay attention. I think this might be the first time we can't keep hitting the "snooze button" on the alarm clock.