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IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FAST FORWARD
MOTION IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE
BEYOND THAT WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE SUPPORTED BY A 999 MB STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/22...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE JUST
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT. CHARLEY IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD MOVE CHARLEY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS HAPPEN.
THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...
CALLING FOR CHARLEY TO TRACK ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
AND WESTERN CUBA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CLUSTERING HAS BECOME EVEN TIGHTER THAN 6 HR AGO SINCE THE GFS
AND GFDL HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD. THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGE JUST A
LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. AFTER 72 HR...WHILE
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION.S SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED BETWEEN THE FASTEST NOGAPS...THE
INTERMEDIATE GFDL...GFS...AND NHC98...AND THE SLOWER BAMS. THE
FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE ON THE SPEED...CALLING FOR CHARLEY TO MOVE
INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA AND ACCELERATE TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE 72-120 HR PART OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH SHOWN IN THE MODELS.

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