Tropical Storm Bonnie sputtered a bit earlier this evening, but she has regained some convection and is slowly moving to the north. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida panhandle eastward to the mouth of the Suwanee River.

Current intensity remains at 40 knots, however, NHC forecasts a slow increase in intensity to 60 knots - just below hurricane status - prior to landfall near Fort Walton Beach on Thursday morning. Residents in the Watch area should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Bonnie and take necessary precautions if the Watch is upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Charley developed an impressive Central Dense Overcast (CDO) this evening. Charley, with sustained winds of 55 knots, continues to move toward the west northwest at 22 knots. Charley continues to maintain excellent outflow and has a large circulation envelope. The following Watches and Warnings have been issued:

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD
INCLUDING PORT-AU-PRINCE.

I expect Charley to reach hurricane intensity on Wednesday - rapid intensification is possible with this cyclone. In the long term, Charlie has the potential to pose a threat to the Florida peninsula, and Florida residents should plan now for the possibility of a significant weather event on Saturday. This would be especially true if Charley passes north of Jamaica rather than south of it on Wednesday. It is certainly a system that nees to be monitored closely as the weekend approaches...and we'll do just that for both Bonnie and Charley.
ED

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Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
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