bonnie doesn't look much the worse at this hour. convection has once again returned to this small system, after a strange no-shear decoupling earlier today. can only wonder if the surface system is going to ever respond to the good environment.. not with the nhc on increasing shear capping the development.. think the alex going northeast situation will apply here as well. baroclinic effects and perpendicular coast approach should tighten the center near landfall on thursday. not very confident in my forum assertion, but it's as good as any, really. convection is looking better overnight but we've done this before.. until a real structural improvement takes place this is going to be tropical storm bonnie forevermore.
charley, if it isn't starting to outrun it's convection, is going to be a hurricane tomorrow and quite possibly a major hurricane by friday. i'm not going to stick a pin anywhere, but my ideas right now are western cuba close to havana, the lower keys, and the coastline between naples and tampa bay. it could graze the coast for quite a distance with that angle of approach... this is all four days and low confidence. i do expect a 3-4 range hurricane by that time though. more likely a 3 as it won't be over open water the whole time. most intensification.. am thinking will take place friday.
getting ideas about the convection near 13/38. too early to mean anything, but i do expect something to start acting up out there before the weekend. new wave passing off africa isn't looking half bad at this hour either.
as for the subtropics off the east coast.. westerlies out there should cool off some tomorrow and definitely by the weekend. watching the one further west the most, but the piece near/east of bermuda could also be a candidate. these latter mentions are all low prob, just other things to watch while bonnie and charley have most of our attention.
HF 0456z11august