doug
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Aug 11 2004 01:51 PM
Re: Convergence of systems and timing

No I will stick with what I just said...looked at it all again...the trough is digging down well past San Antonio TX now and a strong push of dry air is well off the NW TX coast pushing generally east-se into the central gulf..this will push Bonnie more east, and my view of it is that this is already occuring as the center now sits right on 90 now...the general elongation of the cloud mass is beginnig to be toward the ene and if you watch the development of the moisture plume ahead of the system you canget a pretty good indication of that as a general direction this is more ene too.
Charley has flattened out some what and that could be temporary; but my bet is that it is feeling the influence of increasingly large Bonnie and the overall shift to the east. Charley may also be influenced by an ULL whch is moving generaly west ahead of it...
It is possible for Charley to shift left of the path and go further west before recurve...But This trough should block it going all the way west.
These are possibilities that I think the current dynamic seems to suggest.



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