I'm seeing some posts that maybe some of the models are starting to trend back to the west. I haven't really looked at the so I don't know, but I have plotted the recon fixes from yesterday through the latest this morning and have come to this conclusion:

First fix yesterday was at 15.2/70.4, the latest fix this morning was at 16.4/76.4 this yields a motion of about 275 to 280 degrees max. This is less than the 285 to 290 TPC had been using with their center estimates while there was no recon.

Looking at zoomed in visibles this morning still seems to show a mostly westward motion at this time. Also seems to be moving at a slower speed. It only stands to reason that the models may begin to trend back westward. I'm sure he will eventually be pulled northward by the trough but depending on how far south he stays now the could be a small chance of missing the turn to the northeast and eventually turning back to the west or northwest as high pressure builds in behind the trough. It wouldn't be the first time this has happened, although this trough is unusually strong. They key is how far south he stays before making the initial turn.

One other note, Charley is already 150 to 175 miles south of the NHC forecast track from last night and early this morning and we are talking about the first 12 hours or so of the forecast. Thats a fairly large error. You have to think that a 120 hour forecast will also be affected

I'm no profesional, just making some observations based on the recon data which I do consider concrete. Time will tell and we all will be watching.