About the models and the ones turning Charley west:

1) Jeb Bush would NOT have declared a State of Emergency for the ENTIRE STATE of Florida for Bonnie.

2) They also would not have issued more hurricane watches north of the Keys at 5pm and will probably have the entire west coast of Florida covered by 5am tomorrow if they thought that Charley was going to go straight west/north whatever. Do you know how much that costs? People on overtime, EOC centers being set up, etc. It doesn't make any sense at all.

If Charley was going to take a westward track away from Florida, he would be fighting the elements. Hurricanes (or any weather event) always take the path of least resistance. Charley would have to make a sharp left hand turn, run into Bonnie's remnants and ...you see where I'm going here.

I don't know what models are predicting this westward turn, but I can tell you that all 3 stations here in TB are telling us we ARE going to have a landfalling Cat 2 hurricane somewhere between Naples and Cedar Key early Friday morning. The further he scoots away from Jamaica before he makes the turn makes me nervous, as this gives him much more time to intensify. He's already beginning to show signs of more organization on the western side of the storm.

Also...for those living in the inland areas of West Central Florida, keep in mind that this is a huge storm and we will feel hurricane strength winds just like the coast. We just won't have the surge.

I'll gladly eat some crow for dinner if I'm wrong about this but too many times I've doubted the NHC's track and they have always been pretty much Johnny-On-The-Spot.

On another note....does anyone remember Tropical Storm Josephine in 1996 (or 97?) It was much like Bonnie....the NHC said NO and it ended up near the big bend of Florida.