ok.. before I head on the road to safety (or lack of it), I am placing my marbles in a Spring Hill to New Port Ritchey landfall (thus why I am running from here).

The reason for my guess is because most storms I have seen 48 hours out has moved north up the coast from projections over the years. Plus, I think SWTMD is calling for a northerly hit as well and they tracked a depression last year that hit Indian Rocks Beach when everyone else said Sarasota. Believe SWFTMD over NHC??? Yeah - I know - totally illogical. I agree.

But, that's my projection as a total novice.

Good luck all - stay safe.