recon's reports from bonnie suggest that it has weakened once again.. significantly this time. i'm really not sure what's wrong with the system.. other than the fact that it's bound for the united states. storms of that category tend to weaken significantly before hitting land, extremely warm water/favorable development conditons or not. in this case westerly shear may be infringing after all.. and since it isn't alex headed out into the open atlantic, it's on a weakening binge.
charley: not strengthening much. i can only guess that jamaica is the cause.. outflow is good and the cdo is solid. i'm wondering if the intensity guidance keeping charley on a very slow, almost abnormal development pace for a recurving hurricane with excellent conditons and very warm waters.. is suggesting something subtly wrong with the storm that i can't detect. regardless.. it's headed for florida.. so those of you who believe in the supernatural power of mouse ears may have more evidence for your case.
so anyway.. expect a drop in intensity and the end of official forecasts for bonnie to be a hurricane at 11, and am waiting to see if charley means to do what is entirely possible for a storm on its course.
HF 0238z12august