MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Aug 12 2004 12:07 PM
Bonnie Stays a Tropical Storm Changes in Charley Track

Hurricane Warnings are up for the Florida Keys now.

Bonnie is being affected greatly by vertical shear at present and now I think it will maintain just Tropical Storm status as it makes landfall.

Charley on the other hand is still good for potential strengthening, and the NHC's official track has moved a bit west toward Tampa as a landfall point, but at a very indirect angle, but the NHC says this could change. And with the new data from the Gulfstream jet the trends can now be much better verified.

However, I think more surprises with Charley are still to come. I do think it will strengthen some more. Everyone in Florida should keep watch of it. With Charley the biggest question is will the trough pick him up or not. There is one scenario that drops Charely off in the Gulf to linger a bit, but I'm not sold on that one yet,. And just to muddy it up more for you, yes there is a fairly decent chance the track will nudge back east a bit later today too.

Currently the National Hurricane Center has what I consider the best bet.

* site note * our automatic tracking map has been disabled temporarily due to a crash issue with the map generation program.

Event RelatedLinks
Hurricane City is having live audio and video broadcasts throughout the day on Bonnie/Charley and Jim's Audio show is from 8PM to 11PM EST
All model "Spaghetti" for Bonnie/Charlie from hurricanealley
Another Multi-Model Track plot for Charley

General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.



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