Hi.. watching the loops more than the various discussion. I think its too early to believe in too much discussion until the storm actually crosses Cuba. From experience they can do funny things. Everyone here seems to never mention the crossing of Cuba and there is an impt element here that no one is talking about.

Bonnie is racing.
The front is digging
Most of the weather is on right side of Charley
It hasn't crossed Cuba

We haven't even started the 4th quarter and everyone is writing post game analysis.

My opinon.

Have heard why it will go more left, I still don't buy it. OR I buy eye itself is but weather is pushed more to right because of wind flow out ahead of front that is pushing weather being blown of Charley to NNE out ahead of storm moving NNW.

A lot to say and this storm takes on worst case scenarios..

2 storms and now the main road US1 is closed down due to an accident. Not JUST an accident...an overturned tractor trailer with what seems to be a chemical spill. There are 3 ambulences on the scene. Channel 7 out of Miami doing great job with coverage of storm as well as close up of chemicals pouring out of tractor trailer and 3 amublences..that is a long term shut down leaving only small but beautiful card sound road on north end of Key Largo as the only road out.

Seems to me except for Charley sparing Jamaica a direct hit everything has gone wrong that could go wrong right now.

Bad data in is bad data out and everything is very fluid. One mistake in model forecasting can create a bad problem down the road.

So... seems to me we are in late 3rd quarter of this Florida part of the game (before flooding moves up the coast) so... waiting to see what happens now as we switch sides of the field and how that affects the quarterbacks throwing game not to mention the kicker. Just which way is the wind blowing and hope there at no funky swirls in this particular stadium (shades of old shea stadium) so...

until its half way into cuba and we see how it takes that crossing and where...all bets off

Think NHC is doing a kick ass job.. just there is variance in that cone and there is variance built in for a reason. And the data they are going over is already old data and its a very fluid situation. Going to see how nicely that gulfstream jet works it looks like and..

as with Irene ..more concerned with where the weather goes and not the exact pinpointed eye..

as said on tv..this weather set up is more like october than august and well... track looks more like august storm tho we rarely have august storms hitting florida from the south..happens but not rarely especially in early August

so so so much to think on
you are all doing a great job, love reading along

sorry if I am a bit out of it on IM with friends.. situation here is very (smiling) fluid.. got to go do errands, will be on later

thanks

bobbi