A few thoughts to share on tracks and shifts. As Charley moves closer to impacting the Florida coast even small shifts in track become more and more critical in areas most likely to be affected.
With the angle of the Florida west coast a relatively small shift will bring it inland much further north along the coast or much further south. A shift left/west is more dangerous for areas up (north) the florida coast, a small shift right/east and system goes more across less populated areas in southWest area of florida with less surge impact. tiny shifts of 50 miles become huge.
At this point I think most everyone will agree this is a peninsula Florida storm. I have narrowed my thinking on landfall to somewhere from Key Largo to Cedar Key but see no good reason to not go with NHC.
Thanks Hurric