joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 12 2004 11:25 AM
Re: Bonnie Stays a Tropical Storm Changes in Charley Track

THE UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST OF CHARLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY
FROM THE HURRICANE...WHICH IS LESSENING THE SHEAR. SINCE THE
CENTRAL CORE DEEP CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...AND THERE
IS AN ABUNDANCE OF WARMER WATER AHEAD...CHARLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA. AFTER PASSING OVER CUBA...THE INTENSITY
MAY DROP SLIGHTLY...BUT RE-STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY AS THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ALMOST UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.
THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT CHARLEY COULD BE NEAR MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST...ESPECIALLY IF IT MAKES LANDFALL FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND
SOUTHWARD WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LESS.