I think that the forecast track is pretty well indicated and has been the same since Tuesday night. It has shifted a little to the west, a little to the east, back and forth again but there has been NO MAJOR CHANGES in the track.
I do not believe that Pinellas County would order the largest evacuation in their history if the NHC was not sure of this track. 380,000 people is a LOT of people to move by 2pm tomorrow. Not to mention other counties that will start evacuating later.
Pinellas County just approved a local state of emergency + a mandatory evacuation of levels A,B and C plus ALL people living in mobile homes beginning at 6pm.

MANATEE COUNTY has just issued a mandatory evacuation of Zones A, B and all mobile homes effective immediately and they will be shutting off the water tomorrow morning and closing the bridges at midnight tonight. I expect that most highways will become one-way ---north and east later today.

I think this all tells us where the heck this storm is going.

School closings just listed:

Polk
Hernando
Hillborough
Manatee
Sarasota
Pinellas
Pasco

I am watching a Pinellas County Commissioner meeting. Gary Vickers (Director ot PC EMA) is saying that Tampa Bay is looking at a 14' storm surge at the time of impact.

I think I am beginning to see an eye with Charley.

This is not going to be a North Gulf of Mexico Storm. It's going to be a West Central/Southwest Florida storm, and I think we know by now that the NHC has a pretty solid track record with tracks.