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Charley is very close to the GFDL 6Z run positions at its last two postings and on the apparent future track, which is still largly NW, should exit Cuba over the narrowest portion of the Island. Satelite pics which show the air currents from that point on the island northward seem to continue the assumption of a land fall just south of Tampa in the Sarasota County area. This has been pretty much the same scenario over the past 6 hours. The major change has been the strengthening of the storm which is occurring, but that was part of the guidance the NHC used at the 11 am discussion and statements issued then. Nothing happening now should deter us from the NHC's positions on this storm at this time. |