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Of the 12Z model runs only 1 of 18 has the eye south of Tampa.... and 5 of the 18 have a direct hit on Tampa, with the eye just north of the Bay (worst case scenario for Tampa I would imagine)... this is the latest model data... and not a very good scenario... of course this is a dynamic situation, and things can and do change... here is the model data link for your information http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03L.html |