This statement is somewhat why I posted earlier. It does seem to be a "quandry".

***UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS SOMETHING OF A QUANDARY WITH THE
LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NEW GFDL AND UKMET RUNS HAVE MADE A
WIDE TURN 75 TO 150 NMI LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND
MOST OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND NHC MODELS HAVE ALSO MADE A
WESTWARD SHIFT. HOWEVER...THE 6- AND 12-HOUR GFDL AND UKMET
FORECAST POSITIONS ARE ALREADY 30 TO 60 NMI WEST OR LEFT OF THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH NOTED DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOULD HELP TO BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD MOTION. BASED
ON THE DEVELOPING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE GULF...AND AN APPARENT LEFT BIAS BY MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF
THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST TRACKS.