And the phone rings and emails keep on coming. Sorry i havnt posted today for I worked and had to respond to alot of people while keeping up with Charley.
Still straight on schedule from my posts a few days back and yesterday on the track of Charley. Bonnie was pretty easy on threatning looks at wanting to jump to hurricane strength but just didnt get the right factors into play. I forcasted her to stay a TS but would have the slightest chance of making a hurricane,. well everything came on schedule (like Alex).
Charley behaving the same way,, path near Jamaica then Cayman Islands then up alittle west of key west and threaten Ft Myers thru about New Port Riche as of a couple days back. Wind speeds are on schedule. I only see 1 thing that the NHC also noted that alitte more of a N wobble at times has been taking place over the last 6 hours. If this continues and starts a wobble or 2 to the NNE by every .1 per 3 hours over the next 6-9 then landfall should be closer to Venice on NNE track late Friday afternoon or by evening. This will be due to the trough to its NW really digging in slightly quicker then what is forcasted (note the ENE jogs that Bonnie took). IF Charley holds his own or strengthns more after 3am in a more major drop in pressure (say down to 962mb) by 8am this might cause more of a lifting factor and keep the path more N into the morning hours on Friday before the wobbles NNE during that late morning hours and into the afternoon and evening. This would take the center near Sarasota - Clearwater landfall around 9pm- 12am. ( note the big swath in timing and area coverage there is due to the coastline in a NNW-SSE direction in corrilation to the N to NNE direction of Charley. Had to tell even now the exact spot due the trough to its west and the better northern outflow of a possible Charley by sunrise. Time will tell but staying on a Sarasota area with impacts all the way up to coastal Hernado. Nothing is set. scottsvb