HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...HURRICANE CHARLEY CROSSING CUBA IN HURRY...EYE OVER WESTERN
HAVANA...ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE
RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST
FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

KEY WEST AND CUBAN RADAR INDICATE THAT AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE
OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED OVER CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST ABOUT 14 MILES...22 KM...WEST OF
DOWNTOWN HAVANA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
THE EYE OF CHARLEY AROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM. HAVANA AIRPORT RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTS TO 58
MPH...93 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET IS PROBABLY BEING EXPERIENCED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MADE LANDFALL. THE SURGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE HURRICANE
MOVES AWAY FROM CUBA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 82.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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