Thanks to Lou and Mike C for the photos on this and the last thread. Earl appears to be the next tropical event for someone in the US or Latin America. Funny thing is, 18WNONAME has a very similar track (though more sloped WNW than N followed by W curve) as Rananim which landfell a couple days prior to Charley and Bonnie. 18W doesn't appear to be headed toward Super Typhoon status but it is certainly heading south of Shanghai. There are also two other invests up for the WPAC including a TCFA on 94W.

Things will be interesting this week. I'll be out of pocket on Monday and Tuesday because I have to go to Lake Charles then Lafayette. We'll be hitting it hard in Lafayette at several of the better drinking establishments and most likely some of the better eating ones too. People talk about the food in New Orleans, and yeah, our stuff is good. But it's better in Lafayette. They are the original [tm]. I gotta go on some recon missions so I figured early in the week was better than later just in case there's any activity worth watching (and a shot at a day off next week). I don't know what Earl's going to do. It's way too early to call. Bastardi gave a west Gulf headsup earlier in the week. Still working on a couple of bloody marys the day after. I didn't have pickled okra (and wasn't using Tabasco), but the beans are spiced (even if they're a product of New Zealand). Heh. It still tastes good.

SOI's gone DEEP negative. A burst of westerlies should be making its way across the Pacific in due time and may heat up the water a bit more in the Central Pacific. That's a headsup for the Hawaiian Islands.

NAO is as deep as it's been in months and may have signaled this development phase (despite the lack of much MJO though I haven't researched it in the last week or so). NAO is forecast (as of Friday) back to neutral for tomorrow. Then there are differences in the model runs. We'll have to see. But if the NAO is driving or telegraphing multiple developments over it's next two tank phases, it might be something to look at every now and then.

NAO Values

NAO Ensemble Forecasts

Steve