Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Aug 15 2004 03:05 AM
Re: Earl & Hurricane Danielle

Jamie,

The SOI usually goes way negative if there is/are developing cyclone(s) in the WPAC. A negative SOI over the long haul usually portends El Nino. It can signify blocking or amplification in the US 15ish days down the road. This can help with the idea of whether or not the eastern US will show trof conditions or just a flatter flow across. Depending on other variables, this can help inidicate whether or not the Gulf or East Coast is at risk at a given time. It doesn't portend storms on this side of the ocean, but it can help with paths. The NAO breaking negative is one of the better signals (in non El Nino years) of a coming burst of tropical activity.

Steve



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center