late, winded from mountain biking this afternoon.. keeping it terse.
charley heading out, going the way of bonnie. end of story.
danielle strengthening, likely to recurve far out to sea. ssts out 2-3 days aren't terribly warm, southwesterly shear ahead.. but as the storm makes it's right turn the relative shear should drop and ssts up near 25-30N in the east atlantic are warmer. dependent on how dramatic a recurvature takes place.. a significant extratropical remnant cyclone may make a run toward the iberian peninsula later on.
not likely at this point, though. storm has some potential to be major.
earl. jk's assessment on the strengthening this evening looks valid.. cdo feature trying to assert itself. should be going through the islands tomorrow afternoon/evening. if we have a hurricane out of earl before midweek look for a track to the right of the guidance envelope.. and potential interaction with the greater antilles. if it gets to hurricane after midweek expect it to be to the left and nearing the yucatan. i'm siding with the stronger earl, getting into the gulf around next saturday. already posted earlier a quote from the hpc discussion.. the later solution at this time is a recurvature into the central gulf coast around monday.. grand isle to apalachicola. bonnie redux. i suppose gfs keeps indicating a shortwave lifting out of texas around then.. it was yesterday. not very specific, but i'll go with the consensus on all that.
old trough boundary hanging in the central gulf deserves a glance but not much more. another piece of the old trough drifting nw near bermuda.. very limited convection and almost no chance. wave that was tailing danielle is lapping it and being mostly entrained (note the mid-level vortex devoid of convection NE of danielle's center).. follow on wave around 10w looks well-defined at this point. watcher when it comes off monday behind danielle.
gfs wants to develop more systems in the future.. the further west they start up (closer to 50w off the itcz).. the more likely they are to be players and not fish spinners. earlier noted that we are strangely in mjo positive and basin convection should be inhibited.. mjo signal seems to be masked and not running the show right now. soi very negative last few days as noted by steve... shots of strongly negative soi phase will contribute to the onset of an el nino warm phase. we're getting there.
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