Lending credence to the recurvature of Earl is the latest run of the UKMET model. Of course, the UKMet didn't do so hot at times with Bonnie and Charley, but it's still interesting to note.

It is a bit faster than the NHC, calling for landfall in about 6 days. The path is almost Charley redux - interaction over Jamaica, passing over the western tip of Cuba - up until what it does in the Gulf, where it takes the system into the Florida panhandle just west of Apalachicola. It makes it a strong system, though the guidance I have just says "STRONG" as opposed to saying how strong. The GFS doesn't really initialize Earl in the last run I saw (18z yesterday), but the midlatitude features are ominous for the eastern & central Gulf. The last NOGAPS I've seen (12z yesterday) takes this system into the Ft. Myers area - sound familiar?

In any case, it's one to watch over the coming days, and I'll buy the stronger Earl and the resulting track as well. The saving grace would be some significant interaction with Cuba - I'm not sure it'll gain enough latitude to really be affected by the Dominican Republic. Only time will tell.