WTNT45 KNHC 150856
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS ELONGATED
SLIGHTLY EAST-WEST...THE AMOUNT AND QUALITY OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING. THE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB IS A CONSENSUS
T3.0...OR 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY INCREASED TO 40 KT
BASED ON THE LACK OF CONSISTENT BANDING FEATURES. AIR FORCE RECON
WILL BE INVESTIGATING EARL LATER THIS MORNING.....

THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN TAKING EARL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN OR NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OR EVEN NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALL OF
THE MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 5...CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO RETREAT EASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MAY
RESULT IN EARL SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURNING MORE
NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...
NOGAPS...AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...ONLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE UKMET.

*edited version. full advisory can be found under "EARL" on the upper left side, above communication heading-edit*