it's still very early with earl. the storm has stayed on the left of guidance.. and recon found a 1011mb pressure.. not very deep. makes the rapid westward movement not at all surprising. until it deepens it may well stay left and south of the forecast track.. which down the road could spell yucatan/central america implications.. though i expect it will find itself sometime during it's trek of the caribbean and gain a poleward component.
yes, earl is a potential bad situation for the august 21st-24th timeframe.. and probably for the central gulf coast. the surface ssts are a bit lower there due to frontal penetration, but still quite warm and probably only enough to cap intensification (not cause opal/lili type weakening before landfall).
we've got all week.. but yeah the writing is on the wall.
HF 1541z15august