Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Aug 15 2004 05:10 PM
Re: Where is Earl Going?

Interesting change from the NHC.....

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO PREVENT MUCH OF A TURN TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE U.K. MET DOES SHOW A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY
DAYS 4-5. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS HAS DIFFICULTY TRACKING EARL
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS BUT SUGGESTS A MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT ON
THIS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.