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Interesting change from the NHC..... NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO PREVENT MUCH OF A TURN TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE U.K. MET DOES SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY DAYS 4-5. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS HAS DIFFICULTY TRACKING EARL AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS BUT SUGGESTS A MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT ON THIS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. |