interesting that models are clustering left and suggesting a flat trajectory/weaker system with earl.. because the outflow has improved some today.. especially to the east. there is a poleward plume tailing back from the northern side of the storm as well.. better defined than earlier. will be interesting if recon finds a sharper center with earl.. looks to have slowed down a tad as well.
danielle has a window to go major in the next few hours.. maybe a few days down the road as it recurves also. intensity will probably cap where the nhc has it, but there is a chance. my last november forecast for the season was 11/6/3.. be kinda funny if the fourth storm of the season is the third major hurricane. how often do your numbers get busted by mid-august?
i was a little suspicious of the gulf/northwest atlantic in charley's wake.. but seems like nothing doing in those areas. got a mind that the piece of the trough grabbing danielle that splits and retrogrades can do something, though models not keen on this idea. just a hunch (those work on occasion).
wave i was earlier thinking of for tuesday is actually about to come off early tomorrow. later in the week when it's past 40w it may become interesting. not close to an invest for now. not sure.. the globals haven't been as keen on the forthcoming waves.. not as consistent anyway. the one coming off or the one back near 0w should at least spawn an invest between them.
HF 2131z15august