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Maybe this will help some folks out! TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED 18 AUG 2004 TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANTS OF T.S. EARL...IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W 20-25 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS INLAND WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 88W-91W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N FROM N FLORIDA TO E TEXAS. RESULTING SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE FROM THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE MOSTLY TO THE REMNANTS OF T.S. EARL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 80W-82W DUE TO AIR MASS HEATING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N77W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 30-50 KNOTS. CARIBBEAN SEA... ON THE SURFACE...STRONG EASTERLIES DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FROM 8N-18N BETWEEN 82W-85W...ALSO DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF T.S. EARL. OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER TRINIDAD AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 55W-63W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N63W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 56W-70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N BETWEEN 63W-80W. |