not going spend too much time in subtropical dreamland... just try and ID the upcoming pattern. danielle has bowed to gfs, ignored the rest.. so it will linger south of the azores as a weak system. i'm impressed by gfs lately.. been doing a good job. pattern right now is somewhat amplified.. with a rex sort of block east of newfoundland (mid/upper ridge far north with a cutoff piece stuck in the ridge to the south). emerging pattern won't support that.. things are flattening out now. subtropical ridge axis near 25N.. far to the south. with NAO going negative the troughs which have been sticking should start to split, so the wavelengths ought to be shortening some and upper height anomalies should start backing westward. subtropical-type development possible with splits and such.. nothing in particular looks that way for now. gfs has a pattern.. still a week or so out.. with the atlantic ridge axis lifting poleward a tad, and weakening in the central atlantic.. height anomalies in the east and west atlantic. if this ends up verifying.. well, ridging near the east coast will be there to bring west what doesn't go out up the middle.. with retrograding ridge axes a storm that pairs with a height max will get far to the west. something to mind this time of year. it'll have to keep showing from run to run before being taken seriously.
as for culprits.. the lead wave is flat, low amplitude.. itcz only sort of stuff. i don't expect much from it. no cookie there. wave near the cv islands right now has more convection, but still fairly flat. gfs tracking some of it's energy on an initially more northwestward path.. through the big mass of subsidence drawn down on the back side of danielle.. which given gfs recent successes merits consideration. some future waves getting attention.. but that's not worth much until they come off.
activity popping up in the eastpac finally this month is probably heralding mjo's arrival.. been a non player so far this year, have to see what it can do.
enjoy the quiet while it lasts. that TD in the eastpac suggests it won't stick around. counter is on.. usually 5-10 days
HF 2225z19august