it is unlikely a system will develop over the weekend. the developing pattern will favor subtropical developments.. maybe close in (frontal leftovers, shortwave splits near the east coast perhaps). steve pointed this out to me.. with the ridging forecast in about a week near the eastern seaboard anything nearby would be serious trouble. but for now, just a potential trouble region based on the pattern. some other outside subtropical possibilites.. the deep layer system that is shearing danielle.. which is entraining plenty of energy as it hovers near 30/45.
the eastern atlantic waves are suffering from variable easterlies at different altitudes.. low level surge pushed the first wave rapidly west behind earl, second wave is an out of phase itcz energy bubble and a denuded low level turning axis.. both are now just drifting westward. the energetic wave about to come off africa should overtake it's forerunner.. should put some more energy in phase and maybe start an organization trend. with the trudging, slightly backed appearance of the eastern atlantic itcz i'd say the area is somewhat primed.. with the onset of mjo negative things should improve.
anyhow, with the upcoming pattern, retrograding ridges and transient, fast moving systems in the subtropics that split when they slow should be the rule. this is the pattern that favors stair-stepping longtrackers, and hybrid development at times. i may be wrong, but think we'll get a taste of one or the other next week.
HF 2158z20august